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Market Turnaround: Existing-Home Sales Make Record Climb in June

July 29, 2020 By Claire Garlick Leave a Comment

According to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), existing home sales increased at a record pace in June, a significant turnaround after three consecutive months of sales declines due to the pandemic. Completed transactions for all property types increased 20.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.72 million. Year-over-year, however, existing-home sales are still down 11.3 percent.

The median sales price for existing homes was $295,300 in June, up 3.5 percent YoY, and prices increased across every region. Unsold inventory is currently at 4.0-months supply, down from 4.8 in May and 4.3 in June 2019. Days on market was at 24 for June, down from 26 days in May and 27 days in June 2019.

For single-family properties, the seasonally adjusted annual rate for sales was 4.28 million in June, up 19.9 percent in May and down 9.9 percent YoY. The median price was $289,600—a 3.5 percent increase YoY. For condos and co-ops, sales recorded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 440,000 units in June. That’s up 29.4 percent from May and down 22.8 percent YoY. The median existing condo price was $262,700, increasing 1.4 percent YoY.

By Region:

Midwest
Existing-Home Sales: 1.1 million (-13.4%YoY)
Median Price: $236,900 (+3.2%YoY)

Northeast
Existing-Home Sales: 490,000 (-27.9% YoY)
Median Price: $332,900 (+3.6% YoY)

South
Existing-Home Sales: 2.18 million (-4.0% YoY)
Median Price: $258,500 (+4.4% YoY)

West
Existing-Home Sales: 950,000 (-13.6% YoY)
Median Price: $432,600 (+5.4%YoY)

How the Industry Is Responding:

“The sales recovery is strong, as buyers were eager to purchase homes and properties that they had been eyeing during the shutdown. This revitalization looks to be sustainable for many months ahead as long as mortgage rates remain low and job gains continue. Home prices rose during the lockdown and could rise even further due to heavy buyer competition and a significant shortage of supply. Homebuyers considering a move to the suburbs is a growing possibility after a decade of urban downtown revival. Greater work-from-home options and flexibility will likely remain beyond the virus and any forthcoming vaccine.” — Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS®

“It’s inspiring to see REALTORS® absorb the shock and unprecedented challenges of the virus-induced shutdowns and bounce back in this manner. NAR and our 1.4 million members will continue to tirelessly work to facilitate our nation’s economic recovery as we all adjust to this new normal.” — Vince Malta, President, National Association of REALTORS®

“Sales were buoyed thanks to some of the lowest mortgage rates on record giving Americans increased buying power. Buyers are still catching up after missing out on the traditional spring purchase season, which was delayed due to stay-at-home orders. As we continue into the summer months, expect increased competition for homes fueled by tight inventory and exceptionally high demand.” — Bill Banfield, Executive Vice President of Capital Markets, Quicken Loans

“MBA’s data has shown a sharp rebound in mortgage purchase applications once states started reopening in May, with activity now surpassing year-ago levels for nine straight weeks. It is thus no surprise that existing-home sales, which are recorded at closing, picked up in June to their highest level since March. We continue to highlight the extraordinarily low level of housing inventory, both in terms of the absolute number of properties on the market, as well as months’ supply. Constrained supply will continue to support home prices in the months ahead, while also making it challenging for some would-be buyers to reach the market. Record-low mortgage rates should keep demand strong, even as the unemployment rate remains extremely elevated.” — Mike Fratantoni, SVP & Chief Economist, Mortgage Bankers Association

“The resurgence of housing demand began in May and has continued into the first half of July in many areas, bringing sales paces back near 2019 levels. Inventory remains low following the listing contraction in April and May in response to the pandemic. This ratcheted up price growth alongside a temporary low in COVID-19 cases; stimulating demand. The recent resurgence in case numbers is likely to impact demand and continue to keep inventory at suppressed levels, but agents and consumers have now had ample time to adapt to social distancing practices and virtual tools, so the impact on sales may be less than we saw in April. The path of the housing market in the near term is going to be closely linked to how the economy progresses. With unemployment supplements expiring and most PPP loans having run their course, we need an appropriate follow-up to the CARES Act.” — Ruben Gonzalez, Chief Economist, Keller Williams

For more information, please visit www.nar.realtor.

 

Article originally published online at https://rismedia.com/2020/07/22/existing-home-sales-make-record-climb-june/.

Filed Under: Housing Market Update, Infographic Tagged With: Colorado Springs, COVID-19, Housing Market Update

What Are Experts Saying About the Rest of 2020?

July 6, 2020 By Claire Garlick Leave a Comment

One of the biggest questions on everyone’s minds these days is: What’s going to happen to the housing market in the second half of the year? Based on recent data on the economy, unemployment, real estate, and more, many economists are revising their forecasts for the remainder of 2020 – and the outlook is extremely encouraging. Here’s a look at what some experts have to say about key areas that will power the industry and the economy forward this year.

Mortgage Purchase Originations: Joel Kan, Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting, Mortgage Bankers Association

The recovery in housing is happening faster than expected. We anticipated a drop off in Q3. But, we don’t think that’s the case anymore. We revised our Q3 numbers higher. Before, we predicted a 2 percent decline in purchase originations in 2020, now we think there will be 2 percent growth this year.

Home Sales: Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors

Sales completed in May reflect contract signings in March and April – during the strictest times of the pandemic lock down and hence the cyclical low point…Home sales will surely rise in the upcoming months with the economy reopening, and could even surpass one-year-ago figures in the second half of the year.

Inventory: George Ratiu, Senior Economist, realtor.com

We can project that the next few months will see a slow-yet-steady improvement in new inventory…we projected a stepped improvement for the May through August months, followed by a return to historical trend for the September through December time frame.

Mortgage Rates: Freddie Mac

Going forward, we forecast the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to remain low, falling to a yearly average of 3.4% in 2020 and 3.2% in 2021.

New Construction: Doug Duncan, Chief Economist, Fannie Mae

The weaker-than-expected single-family starts number may be a matter of timing, as single-family permits jumped by a stronger 11.9 percent. In addition, the number of authorized single-family units not yet started rose 5.4 percent to the second-highest level since 2008. This suggests that a significant acceleration in new construction will likely occur.

Bottom Line

The experts are optimistic about the second half of the year. If you paused your 2020 real estate plans this spring, reach out to a local real estate professional today to determine how you can re-engage in the process.

 

Article originally published at https://www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/2020/06/29/what-are-experts-saying-about-the-rest-of-2020/.

Filed Under: Buyers, Housing Market Update, Pricing, Sellers Tagged With: Colorado Springs, COVID-19, For Buyers, For Sellers, Housing Market Update, Monument Realtor, Pricing

Home Prices: It’s All About Supply and Demand

June 8, 2020 By Claire Garlick Leave a Comment

supply and demand

As we enter the summer months and work through the challenges associated with the current health crisis, many are wondering what impact the economic slowdown will have on home prices. Looking at the big picture, supply and demand will give us the clearest idea of what’s to come.

Making our way through the month of June and entering the second half of the year, we face an undersupply of homes on the market. Keep in mind, this undersupply is going to vary by location and by price point. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), across the country, we currently have a 4.1 months supply of homes on the market. Historically, 6 months of supply is considered a balanced market. Anything over 6 months is a buyer’s market, meaning prices will depreciate. Anything below 6 months is a seller’s market, where prices appreciate. The graph below shows inventory across the country since 2010 in months supply of homes for sale.

Robert Dietz, Chief Economist for the National Home Builders Association (NAHB) says:

“As the economy begins a recovery later in 2020, we expect housing to play a leading role. Housing enters this recession underbuilt, not overbuilt. Estimates vary, but based on demographics and current vacancy rates, the U.S. may have a housing deficit of up to one million units.”

Given the undersupply of homes on the market today, there is upward pressure on prices. Looking at simple economics, when there is less of an item for sale and the demand is high, consumers are willing to pay more for that item. The undersupply is also prompting bidding wars, which can drive price points higher in the home sale process. According to a recent MarketWatch article:

“As buyers return to the market as the country rebounds from the pandemic, a limited inventory of homes for sale could fuel bidding wars and push prices higher.”

In addition, experts forecasting home prices have updated their projections given the impact of the pandemic. The major institutions expect home prices to appreciate through 2022. The chart below, updated as of earlier this week, notes these forecasts. As the year progresses, we may see these projections revised in a continued upward trend, given the lack of homes on the market. This could drive home prices even higher.

Bottom Line

Many may think home prices will depreciate due to the economic slowdown from the coronavirus, but experts disagree. As we approach the second half of this year, we may actually see home prices rise even higher given the lack of homes for sale.

 

Article originally published at https://www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/2020/06/02/home-prices-its-all-about-supply-and-demand/

Filed Under: Buyers, Housing Market Update, Pricing, Sellers Tagged With: For Buyers, For Sellers, Housing Market Update, Monument Realtor, Pricing

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